Embedded Files
A Fortress World
A Fortress World
2038
In 2038, nationalist and far-right movements have consolidated their collective power in dozens of countries, building on 2020’s successes in the USA, India, Argentina, the UK and Hungary. They have brought in authoritarian policies, shut down civic space and are using technology to continue to spread disinformation and confusion as a means of holding onto power.
There has been a complete breakdown of previous global governance infrastructures like the UN and EU. They suffered a slow, deliberate death by defunding, ignoring resolutions, and relocating critical functions to new creations by right-wing governments - such as the Global Foundation for Family that promotes traditional family values. Instead, an axis of populist and neo-right governments in the US, UK, Russia, India, France and Germany prioritise self-interest, and the consolidation of power and wealth amongst their interconnected political movements. Global trade and freedom of movement is seen as a relic of the 21st Century and most countries around the world have shrunk within their own borders and self-selecting trading partners. Social media, generative AI and the attention economy of the mid 2020s has merged into the ‘control’ economy - used by governments to control populations. Mandatory, biometric national digital ID linked to all financial, educational, and healthcare services, serve as the ultimate tool of social and political compliance. Technology has seen great breakthroughs in education and health treatments, but these remain the preserve of the very wealthy and are controlled by strict copyright and patent rules.
The world is full of false friendships with little trust.
What is happening in civil society?
What is happening in civil society?
Civic space has closed down and grassroots organizations can’t operate - with hard-won rights and social norms from the beginning of the century rolled back, which has had a chilling effect on LGBTQ+, disability and gender rights work in particular. Anything seen as promoting ‘equality’ is criminalised so any initiatives will not reach the most marginalised and the most in need. Sophisticated narrative attacks framing civil society organisations and movements as anti-progress and political extremists, alongside heightened digital surveillance makes it very hard to operate freely so many have instead become efficient implementers of government agendas, having been co-opted to survive. Those that have been co-opted focus primarily on promoting ‘traditional family values’, often with some success, receiving government funding and retaining strong public donations from those who support these themes. Where civil unrest exists it is repressed.
Underground, many civil society organisations and movements work in pockets of resistance to their governments, supporting the most marginalised communities through more subversive means, which some governments turn a blind eye to. They are reliant on peer-to-peer cryptocurrency networks, small-scale diaspora funding, black-market revenue, and a return to old-school community-level mutual aid systems. Other CSOs have carved out niche roles focusing on digital ethics, data privacy advocacy, algorithmic accountability, or supporting communities negatively impacted by technological disruption. Other more clandestine groups try to hack biometric national digital IDs to work in people's favour. Some focus on regulation, access and ethical use of AI and tech - especially in sectors that are now being run mainly by large language models like education where AI models set curriculum, learning approaches and continually assess students. For children's charities and groups, influencing, monitoring and trying to change these models has become their number one priority; and biggest lever to influence children's lives.
What is happening in international development and aid?
What is happening in international development and aid?
An entrenchment of colonial thinking prevails, with ODA still existing, however being used primarily to ‘trickle down money’ to ‘poorer’ nations; in national self-interest, and often tied to keeping migration down, borders closed and promoting ‘traditional family values’.
INGOs now play an important role, acting as gatekeepers to global north governments and using restrictive funding and monitoring practices to ensure local organisations ‘spend the money well’ and in line with government self-interest. They have primarily been co-opted by right-wing governments, with conservative values on everything from family planning to human rights. Leaning into this has enabled them to keep operating and in many countries continue to receive funding from the public. Smaller INGOs in particular remain active, with a strong ‘charity’ mindset, with little to no focus on social justice. Payment by results, metrics or ‘bonds’ is a common way of operating. The flurry of mergers between INGOs in the mid-20s in response to ODA cuts has only consolidated and centralised the power they hold in the development system. A few INGOs have managed to hold off government influence, operating as a negotiator/broker for money with national government and philanthropists, working a bit in the background, and trying to get what money there is to some of the right places. INGOs have had to make tough ethical decisions - do they protect communities and risk being shut-down, or become part of the machinery that harms them and prioritise self-preservation?
The big global funding and coordination mechanisms of the past have been replaced by national governments trying to pick up the bill for services. When it comes to healthcare, the priority is placed on treatment as opposed to prevention. Denialism pervades many government's responses with some outlawing basic services and work to support LGBTQ+ communities is frequently banded under the guise of being funded by ‘foreign agents’ or ‘deviant’.
However… in another possible future…
However… in another possible future…
A New World Order
A New World Order
2038
By 2038, a new world order has emerged as a counter to the authoritarianism and far-right politics of the Global North who fell into economic and political stagnation after turning to the right, shunning global trade, migration and the transition to renewable energies. In response to the global trade war, climate crisis and authoritarianism of the 2020s, South Africa, Barbados, Nepal, Bangladesh and Costa Rica, along with New Zealand, France and Canada now lead a coalition of nations (who call themselves the ‘New World Order’) who took the counter route, prioritising social cohesion, reducing domestic inequalities, taxing wealth and pursuing more sustainable, green and community-driven models of development.
It started in the mid 2020s, when Gen Z protests that were successful in Kenya, Nepal and Bangladesh mushroomed across dozens of countries, supported by the emerging green populist movement, with young people learning from each other across borders, forcing progressive change in governments around the world. These protests, along with a mix of leapfrog technologies, an economic boom from green economic models, investment from non-traditional governments, progressive wealth taxes, self-investment and protectionism, enabled this new world order to emerge, predominantly led by countries from the Global Majority. They wrestled control of multinational institutions and established a strong new UN global tax system, canceled and restructured debts and now ensure resources are used for domestic public services.They are gripping the climate crisis and have secured climate reparations from polluting nations for the countries most impacted by the climate crisis. They are testing new forms of measuring progress, shoving aside GDP as the sole measure, with many using Gross National Happiness, a Sustainable Development Index or Doughnut Economics to measure progress and have embraced a living wage and basic incomes.
Negotiated debt agreements and the UN Global tax system has enabled many governments to fully fund previously globally-funded health, education, livelihoods and other programmes. In health, standalone condition specific responses are now seen as old-fashioned, and the whole paradigm is now focussed on holistic physical health and mental wellbeing - powered by quick personalized and community specific diagnostics, treatments and vaccines. In education, personalised education makes it accessible and effective for everyone, lowering inequalities and allowing people to thrive. There is a recognition that human health is deeply inter-related with planetary health.
In the Global North, the AI revolution and the arrival of artificial general intelligence in late 2026 becomes a tool for financial gain, data collection and societal control. However, in the ‘New World Order’ countries though, the ‘Deepseek effect’ saw them developing their own versions of popular AI tools and technologies with a real focus on putting it to use for social good; less driven by using it to make profit and hold people's attention, but more focused on adapting it to local needs and fixing specific problems in communities, wider society and health.
What is happening in civil society?
What is happening in civil society?
In ‘New World Order’ countries a thriving civil society is led predominantly by grassroots and community-based organisations. It is resourced primarily through local and domestic philanthropy, and working in partnership with local and national governments.
Civil society organisations and movements champion context-appropriate solutions and resist the imposition of external, top-down models or technologies. Alternative futures are emerging, proposing regenerative options that dramatically shift the paradigm to the realm of a possible world where people and planet are in harmony. Their resilience stems from strong community ties, adaptability, diverse local funding streams, and effective local networking. Many civil society organisations and movements have formed strong regional alliances or thematic networks to share knowledge and resources. Advocacy work is primarily focused on local or national issues, influencing policies to promote equity and meet local needs; or showcasing best practices to CSOs in other ‘New World Order’ countries.
Countries such as South Africa, Barbados and Canada have ‘flagship Universal Basic Services programmes (UBS) working hand in hand with civil society that has revolutionised education, healthcare and community cohesion. These are largely seen as responsible for their thriving, happy populations living within planetary boundaries.
Civil Society outside of the New World Order struggles to operate in oppressive states but look to the success of their peers in New World Order countries for hope, inspiration and learning.
What is happening in international development and aid?
What is happening in international development and aid?
The old model of aid and development has collapsed in the last ten years, replaced by thriving and well funded New World Order civil society organisations and movements collaboratively solving shared social problems. They are funded directly by their own governments, and by major funders and philanthropists, and the days of northern intermediaries are over. Technology has become an amazing enabler of social change in these countries - driven by quantum speed computing, and Artificial General Intelligence. Personalised education and healthcare has become the norm, led by and delivered by community based organisations who can tailor it to the local contexts and needs. The coherence of having the government as a main source of funding means there is very little inefficiencies in approach and layers of bureaucracy.
Regional and global cooperation is strong within the New World Order, focusing on shared challenges and mutual support. Civil society organisations and movements share with each other context-appropriate solutions and resist the imposition of external, top-down models or technologies. Some larger global organisations still exist: curating good practice across nations and convening collaborations at regional or multi-country level. They host digital commons of knowledge, best practice and data that everyone can benefit from using and coordinate opportunities for collective advocacy. They all grew out of the space created when most INGOs closed in the late 2020’s, either being squeezed out in the rapidly shrinking civic space of far-right countries outside of the New World Order or by realising local organisations based in new world order countries were better placed to take the reins of global coordination and knowledge curation. Some medium-sized INGOs transformed their purpose towards participatory grant-making, forming a critical bridge between Global Minority philanthropy and thriving local civil society. Reparatory justice and decolonial approaches are at the heart of those international organisations that continue to exist - not just in word but in practice.
However… in another possible future…
However… in another possible future…
A World in Flux
A World in Flux
2038
In 2038 the world remains deeply unstable, still reeling from COVID-19's economic impact, the rise of nationalism, and capitalism's failure to address climate change, societal tensions and inequality. Climate breakdown—marked by a six-year European drought, persistent U.S. hurricanes, and the early collapse of Atlantic ocean currents—drives constant political, social, and economic volatility. The world is trying out lots of new ways of being, trying to find what will replace a dying capitalist system. Countries cycle through various governmental systems: populist movements, military control, tech oligarchs, and technocratic administrations. Despite experiments in participatory democracy, no stable model has emerged that commands widespread support.
In amongst all this flux some countries are building new, equity driven and stable alternatives - becoming ‘shining lights’ of hope to others. Their response to the failure of capitalism and globalisation was to build new socially driven, locally and community owned economic and political models. The ‘Taxe Zucman’ movement that spread through many countries in the late 2020’s, and populist green governments like those in the UK and Spain has resulted in large wealth taxes and more equal societies with finance to invest in fixing social problems. Successful ‘One Piece’ revolutions in the mid to late 2020’s across Asia and Latin America brought Gen-Z-led governments focused on decarbonisation, algorithmic justice, and democratic decentralisation..
Tech innovation is in a constant battle it may not win, pushing back or slowing down the harsh reality of climate breakdown - pushing the limits of carbon capture technologies. While Artificial General Intelligence driven transformation continues to expand globally access to its benefits remains unequal, creating new forms of digital and economic inequality and further fuelling instability. The attention economy has evolved into a tool that tech oligarchs use to manipulate political views and win and consolidate political and economic power. Pockets of ‘unpluggers’ further fuel political instability by fighting back against the technology and LLMs controlling peoples lives.
Multilateral institutions now primarily serve to maintain remnants of capitalism, prioritising efficiency and growth over human rights. Former conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, Palestine, Mali, Syria, and Taiwan have evolved into constant proxy wars between major powers, with the UN sidelined and international rulebooks obsolete.
What is happening in civil society?
What is happening in civil society?
Instability and constantly changing governments has meant many Civil society organisations and movements have become extremely resilient and financially sustainable, turning their funding model to one that relies much more on community and national philanthropy, rather than be at the whims of constantly changing government or global funders. They are very adept at chameleon-like shifts in how they present their work, depending on who is in power - sometimes as radical community driven movements, and sometimes as compliant deliverers of essential services. New forms of governance (i.e. many-to-many) are deeply embedded in the most progressive and future-oriented ecosystems, organisations and movements.
In "shining light" countries, civil society is vibrant and innovative, while other authoritarian regimes tightly control organisations, limiting them to basic service delivery.
What is happening in international development and aid?
What is happening in international development and aid?
The international development landscape is highly fragmented. Global targets and goals have disappeared as countries experience vastly different trajectories. Tax collection and spending vary dramatically—some nations have Global Solidarity Taxes funding social programs, while traditional aid budgets have collapsed elsewhere. Development indicators have generally stagnated or declined globally, though some countries have solved previously intractable problems through political experimentation, technology, and domestic resources.
Decentralised alliances have formed along political rather than regional lines, with civil society organisations collaborating and sharing best practices across these new coalitions through digital commons. Philanthropists now focus on thematic issues, making pooled funds and issue-specific intermediaries the primary funding sources for civil society organisations and movements.
For global organisations, the picture is hugely mixed. Those global organisations that recognised they needed to evolve their role, were quick to adapt and aligned themselves quickly with civil societies in progressive and shining light countries have thrived - many acting as specialist funder-mediaries on specific issues. Many global organisations or former INGOS have also closed over the last decade, realising the economic and political complexity requires fewer people to be in the system, and that local and regional actors are far better placed to work alongside their own communities and be the navigators of the fluctuating political and economic waters. Of those northern-based INGOs that still survive (most after having merged), many are servants of those governments still using international aid as a way to leverage national self interest. They act as the guardians and gatekeepers - delivering politically approved programmes with complaint co-opted CSOs. Others perpetuate a white saviour ‘charity’ model, providing hand-outs at the expense of social justice.
However… in another possible future…
However… in another possible future…
A World Bought by Big Tech
A World Bought by Big Tech
2038
A World Bought by Big Tech
A World Bought by Big Tech
As AI reached general intelligence and we achieved quantum computing speeds, technology became the driver in life, politics and society. What was called ‘the attention economy’ of the mid 2020s has evolved into one of political and economic control. Technology companies took political control quietly, using their technology to run hospitals, schools, government identity and passport systems, currency and tax. The technology and the algorithms the companies decided set the rules of how people live, and who got access to what, this was no longer the domain of politicians. A handful of consolidated technology corporations, the "platform states," now hold the real power, governing regional blocks of former nation states. Former national governments are now administrative partners, there to ensure the smooth running of the society.
The technology has dramatically transformed healthcare diagnostics and treatments building on early wins in the mid-2020s where AI started accurately diagnosing rare diseases at a rate and accuracy never seen before. In education, personalised education for all has resulted in a brain boost across society. Huge advances in carbon capture technology have ‘solved’ the atmospheric climate crisis, so temperatures are no longer rising. Whilst they have undoubtedly created a quick fix and claim climate change is a thing of the past, they have ignored the ongoing ecological crisis. Biodiversity loss, soil collapse and chemical pollution prevails, as the solutions haven’t tackled the root causes.
Artificial General Intelligence optimises everything from day-to-day admin, personal health, money etc creating a frictionless society for those within the ecosystem. The entire global economy runs on a single, proprietary ‘Personal Credit Ledger’ that is simultaneously a “Digital citizenship" that determines access to work, credit, and social services currency, as well as the currency used to pay for things. "Tax" is a variable transaction fee that extracts wealth with every user interaction. Life for the platform-integrated majority is unprecedentedly good. However, this great technological dividend is extremely selective and unequal - with the platform states using AI and algorithms to decide which social groups benefit.
What is happening in civil society?
What is happening in civil society?
Civil society now operates in a very controlled environment. Most tech companies have grown significant philanthropic arms - all powered by AI. They find those civil society organisations and movements that play the game and are "platform-sanctioned”. These organisations leverage new technology for social good and excel at delivering hyper-efficient, data-driven social services. However, they cannot challenge the fundamental structures of platform control, algorithmic bias, or data ownership. They are, in essence, developers of "social good" features that enhance the platform's brand, while contributing to growing inequality and injustice through perpetuation of exclusion and bias.
Yet In the digital shadows, a smaller, more precarious "off-grid" civil society fights for survival. Composed of data rights activists, ‘hackers’, open-source developers, they work to create alternatives outside the walled gardens of the platform states. They are perpetually under-resourced and under surveillance, framing their struggle around algorithmic justice and human autonomy. More radical groups have become ‘hackers’ - actively looking to try to de-bias and ‘ethical-ise’ AI models and hack the systems so people can equitably access health care, social security and education.
What is happening in international development and aid?
What is happening in international development and aid?
Large INGOs and big organisations were left behind long ago, as their oil-tanker-like bureaucracies held them back from keeping up with the rapidly changing technological environment. Corporate Social Investment and venture philanthropy arms are who are the main players now in a "Development" has been re-framed around simply getting the world's remaining unconnected populations onto the platforms and reaping the ‘benefits’. The ‘new aid worker’ excels at user-experience design and user acquisition. Their KPI isn't lives saved but new users integrated into the platform, and INGO consultancies are simply providing local, on-the-ground sales and onboarding services for the Platform States.
Some (mostly medium-sized) INGOS have now rebranded as specialised consultancies that help local civil society organisations and movements to become "platform compliant." and act as intermediaries between communities and the tech platforms, helping them navigate the complex grant applications, data-sharing agreements, and content moderation rules required to operate. Whilst framed as “supporting the forgotten and disconnected” it is no longer about alleviating poverty or tackling injustice but integrating people into the data-driven global economy dictated by the big tech companies and platforms.
Some other INGOs are more challenging to the status quo. They are actively engaging with AI platforms to add to datasets and train them to reduce built-in bias and oppression, actively training AI models to be anti-racist and inclusive.
A few INGOs hide in the shadows, hacking, subverting and leveraging new technology to connect up the more radical ‘off-grid’ CSOs and movements around the world. Young people play a key role in these - often ‘stealing’ new and scalable tech driven solutions to poverty being made available on platforms, and breaking them out and using them with people who have been excluded.
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